Fire Umbra AliceTier 2
at RDO 卡庫店冠賽
decks
1
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
26.9%
avg ELO -13.3 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1275
· median 1275
· range 1275–1275
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1096
Q1 1215
Q3 1396
1523
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 12.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
